Google Gemini Ultra leaks reveal AGI by Christmas

Claim: Google will reach AGI by Christmas based on leaked Gemini Ultra capabilities.

Verdict: False — the claim relies entirely on hype and no credible evidence suggests AGI is imminent.

Every few weeks the internet decides that AGI will arrive on a specific date, usually because someone on social media confidently announces it with the conviction of a lottery winner holding a ticket that expired in 2013. This time the rumour is that Google’s upcoming Gemini Ultra model is on track to “reach AGI by Christmas,” based on—naturally—a blurry screenshot, an ambiguous benchmark graph, and one anonymous comment claiming to be from “a Google insider.”

Let’s do what we do here: sort the nonsense from the real signals.

The Claim

An image circulated on X showing what appeared to be a performance chart placing “Gemini Ultra” above GPT-4.1 in categories labelled “reasoning,” “world knowledge,” “planning depth,” and—my personal favourite—“proto-sentience.” Accompanying posts claimed Google researchers had privately admitted the model was “just shy of AGI” and “expected to surpass human performance in most tasks by Christmas.”

Because that’s how cutting-edge AI announcements work: leaked on a social platform, watermarked with compression artefacts, and annotated by a user named “AItruthseeker990.”

The Source

The chart originated from a Discord server known for blending actual technical discussion with a steady drizzle of wish-fulfilment fanfiction. The earliest version of the image contains:

• No metadata
• No context
• No citation
• No matching style to any internal Google research document
• And font rendering that screams “someone made this in Canva at 2 AM”

Multiple accounts reposted the image as if it were an internal slide, but none provided the original source, making verification impossible—unless you count the phrase “trust me bro” as evidence.

Our Assessment

Let’s break down what we can actually confirm:

• The chart uses a colour palette and design template identical to several public Google marketing images—specifically the ones used for press decks, not research material.
• The metrics shown (“proto-sentience,” “planning depth,” “world knowledge”) do not correspond to any known internal Google benchmarks.
• A reverse-image search reveals the chart is visually similar to a popular AI-fantasy meme template circulated in May.
• The “Gemini Ultra” label is inconsistent with how Google names its model variants in internal documentation that hasbeen confirmed.
• No credible researcher or engineer has supported the AGI-by-Christmas timeline.
• And finally: if Google had genuinely achieved AGI, the announcement would not be leaking via a smudged PNG shared by accounts that usually tweet about cryptocurrency and UFO disclosure.

In other words: this wasn’t a leak.
It was a design exercise with delusions of grandeur.

The Signal

Here’s what we actually know about Google’s current work:

• They are investing heavily in large-scale multimodal systems.
• They are preparing a new Gemini release.
• They are working on model reasoning improvements.
• They are catching up to competitors in some benchmarks and ahead in others.

But none of this indicates:

• A sudden jump to AGI
• Anything resembling “proto-sentience”
• A secret Christmas surprise
• Any indicators that match the chart circulating online

So yes: something is happening. But it’s standard model iteration—not an AI revolution wrapped in holiday marketing.

Verdict

Rumour Status: ❌ Hype Mirage
Confidence: 97%

Wake me when a real leak contains something more substantial than a Canva chart and a Discord rumour mill

• For realistic expectations of model performance, see How Chatbots Work.
• For AGI hype context, see Sparks of AGI.